Breaking up is hard to do — Road crews work to keep streets clear

By Jenny Neyman
Redoubt Reporter

It’s a street fight out there.

A battle waged in rubber boots and rain gear, with steam wands and snowplows, where the enemy creeps forward to gain territory at night, and no matter how hard crews work, their efforts end up all wet.

It’s breakup on the Kenai Peninsula. The season of soggy, the damp hurdle that must be mucked through before the first glimmers of spring can sprout and germinate into the promise of summer.

Left to itself, nature takes its course. The almost 14 hours of sunlight and temperatures into the upper 30s and low 40s during the day will slowly thaw the ground and open up the streams, lakes and other waterways that will sluice away the melting piles of snow that have been stockpiled all winter.

In the meantime, it’s up to road crews to keep that process from interfering with civilization as much as possible.

“The public is our number one priority inside Soldotna, especially this time of year. We try to keep streets clear and water puddles and stuff down so they can move freely,” said Morgan Burdick, acting manager of the street maintenance department.

Breakup is one of the street maintenance department’s busiest times of year, Burdick said. It’s a constant daily battle of unclogging storm drains and culverts, shoving sodden snow back from streets and coaxing sometimes lakelike bodies of water to hang out somewhere other than the middle of the street.

The battle can last for weeks or months. This round has been going on in earnest for about three weeks now.

“Breakup depends on how sudden and dramatic it is. If we go into a freeze-thaw type cycle, where it’s cold in morning and warms up in the afternoon pushing high 30s or 40s, we’ll have quick breakup. Of course, it all depends on how dramatic that is,” said Wayne Ogle, public works director with the city of Kenai.

Ed Mallette and Gary Conradi, with Soldotna’s street maintenance department, responded to a clog on Shady Lane near the Veterans of Foreign Wars post near the end of March that was in desperate need of their attention. It was either that or call the Alaska Department of Fish and Game to stock the puddle and post signs recommending life vests be worn at all times.

The several-inches-deep puddle covered the entire road and stretched for about five vehicle lengths. There was no getting around it, only plowing through. That’s the danger of breakup driving. It’s difficult to judge the depth of the water, much less be able to tell if there’s ice, potholes or ruts on the road underneath.

Vehicles can slip, skid or hydroplane, and the water can impair visibility for the driver and whoever is near enough to get sprayed by their wake. And at night, that water turns back into ice.

“With freeze-thaw cycles, people just need to be kind of aware it’s all iced up all of a sudden where it was water before,” Ogle said. “Roads can get black ice on them in the evening. People need to be a little more mindful of that.”

Mallette and Conradi couldn’t see under the water to Shady Lane’s ice ruts, either, so they shuffled more than waded as they worked on drains on either side of the road.

They traded off between a shovel and the wand from a steam truck that is used to thaw ice from chocked-up drains and culverts, giving the water someplace else to go.

“This method is a lot nicer,” said Mallette. Before the city got the steam truck crews would find drains with a metal detector then chip away at them with a steel bar, he said. But even that wasn’t as bad as some of the tasks that fall to the maintenance crews.

“When it’s 25, 30 below and you have to do sewers. That’s probably one of the worst jobs. This is almost pleasant,” Mallette said.

Preventative maint-enance is part of the battle, which is why road crews in Kenai and Soldotna devote whatever time they have left over from plowing and sanding in the winter to scraping off ice and pushing snow berms farther back from streets and drains.

“With a lot of the maintenance and work we do over the year we don’t have near the water problems we used to,” Burdick said. “I can remember (about 25) years before on East Redoubt seeing people out there with canoes trying to get from one side to the other.”

But there’s only so much that can be done in advance.

“It’s more labor intensive when it starts breaking up. If it all happens at once, it ain’t something you can do ahead of time,” Conradi said.

“If it gets really cold at night, some of them re-freeze. Mother Nature has a lot to do with it.”

So do technology and experience. Steam trucks make a huge difference, Ogle said, as does knowing where the perennial problem spots are.

“One of the benefits is we try to know and locate them ourselves. We try to anticipate it and try to make sure it is as free as possible,” Ogle said. “But you can sometimes get fooled by the fact that it looks like it’s getting ready to do the big thaw and be done with it, then it goes back into the freeze cycle.”

Burdick said breakup has been relatively painless in Soldotna so far, with some of the worst spots already taken care of — like the moat that used to form every year on SoHi Lane.

“Things actually are going pretty good. There’s not really any hot spots for us as of yet. Most of the water spots that were deep and a problem the crews have been taking care of very well,” he said. “Our streets are starting to look really good. I know during the day after we leave they get somewhat slushy and freeze. We get some complaints of rough roads and we take care of them as soon as we get in.”

Burdick and Ogle encourage residents to call their local maintenance department to report problem areas that haven’t been addressed.

“If we don’t know about them, we can’t fix them. We take care of them as soon as we get phone calls,” Burdick said.

Just as nature is cyclical, so is the to-do list for those tasked with limiting nature’s inconveniences. As crews begin to turn the tide — literally — against breakup, it won’t be long before they’re preparing for it again.

“The city needs to transition from winter mode to spring mode and everybody wants to see the sand gone. It’s always something we’re rushing around trying to get the sweepers going,” Ogle said. “We start getting winter equipment ready about the middle of July. We’re always about a season ahead of anticipation.”

Sliding into spring — Avalanche hazard in Turnagain Pass

By Jenny Neyman
Redoubt Reporter

Snowmachiners, backcountry skiers and climbers beware: the January hurricane crust could come back to bury you.

That’s the message from Carl Skustad, with the Chugach National Forest Avalanche Information Center. The center issued an advisory of extreme avalanche danger in the Turnagain Pass area on Friday.

“The current hazard is out there due to the large amounts of new snow. We’ve actually gotten about one-third of our total snow in the last three weeks, and that is sitting on top of a weak layer that was formed mid-January,” Skustad said Friday.

Conditions formed what Skustad calls a hurricane crust. Winds gusting up to 120 mph on ridge tops and rain up to 3,000 feet in January created an icy layer on top of the snowpack. Subsequent snowfalls, which have gotten heavier as temperatures warm, are sitting on top of that slick surface.

“Now we’ve reached this point where there’s this much stress on top of a weak layer and it’s exceeding the strength of this weak layer. That’s why any additional load could tip the balance, or any skier or snowmobile or climber,” Skustad said.

In these conditions, a slide could be triggered by as little as the warming rays of the sun. On steep slopes, any snowmachining, skiing, climbing or snowshoeing could trigger an avalanche, and risky activities like high marking pose a distinct threat.

“No, that’s definitely not a good idea right now,” Skustad said.

Most avalanches happen on slopes with a 38-degree or higher angle.

“But that’s just another indication of how tender our snowpack is now, that we’re seeing avalanches as low as 25 degrees,” Skustad said.

“I do not have a good feeling for the rest of the season,” he said. “We’re in April, so, really, we’re looking at a month. Once the snowpack has a chance to go through the whole avalanche cycle, which it does every spring, and it gets to what is called isothermal — when the snowpack is all the same temperature. Past that we’re golden, but until that point this weak layer will live under there.”

The hazard was issued for the Turnagain Arm area, but Skustad cautions that the same conditions probably exist throughout the highway backcountry corridor.

“It’s confirmed all the way through Summit Lake, and I expect all the way into the Lost Lake area. There’s nothing to think that it’s not at Lost Lake. I think it’s safe to assume this hazard does exist all the way down to there,” he said.

The death of 35-year-old Yancy Flair, of Anchorage, who was buried in a slide in Johnson Pass while snowmachining March 28, and a slide that closed the Seward Highway between Girdwood and Portage on March 27 has punctuated the avalanche danger in the Turnagain Arm region recently. It took searchers until Saturday to recover Flair’s body.

Skustad said conditions are hazardous, but not extremely unusual.

“It’s something that we can expect every few years. It’s the persistent weak layer that happens midwinter that determines how significant our spring instability is going to be. We had a couple really large events midwinter that have now come back to haunt us in the snowpack,” he said.

That doesn’t mean the mountains should be off-limits, just approached with caution and the proper gear — including avalanche beacons.

“I always tell people they should go out and recreate out of doors somehow. You need to keep the slope angle low and have experience, or travel with someone who has experience with avalanche awareness,” Skustad said.

Cool catch — Fishing’s still hot, even when winter’s not

“Is it a cross-country skiing trip or a fishing trip?” I ask myself.

Both, of course. And what better way to spend one of our now-lengthening winter afternoons, than partaking in the two activities I enjoy most this time of year?

I’ve discovered that fishing, despite the cold, is a year-round sport. With the upper reaches of the Kenai still flowing and an estimated 15 percent of the trout population overwintering in these waters, there is simply no reason to put away the fly rod. Of course, one must prepare for the hardships of cold, and possibly wet, conditions.

I’m the first to admit that it appears somewhat crazy to even consider fishing when the mercury plunges so low your glasses regularly fog, the guides on your rod ice up time and again and when the mere thought of tying on a new fly is painful.

But there are reasons that inspire such madness. Perhaps the sense of urgency, of adventure, that comes with life in extreme weather, even in a place you know well. Maybe it’s also fisherman’s intuition, whispering that, as the mercury begins to climb even a little bit after the overnight freeze, the trout will become active and begin feeding.

Also, the long ski to the now-braided waters below Skilak Lake reveal a changed world. Not only has the water dropped significantly, but with the motorboats of summer long gone, it’s now supremely quiet. So quiet you can hear the brush of an eagle’s wings as they sweep the horizon, darkly silhouetted against the muted light of midday.

And there is not another soul within view. Even the most heated war zones in the summer battle for sockeyes have been relinquished back to the spirit of the river. The only footprints encased in the frozen ground now are a few wayward paw prints from restless bears that, like us, don’t know any better and have left the comfort of their dens for a day on the river.

This late in the season, our best hope for action might be a flesh fly, mimicking the decaying flesh of last autumn’s salmon. And if we spot some of the late-run silvers that continue to trickle into the river well past the first of the year, we might fish behind them with an egg pattern or egg-sucking leech. With less water in the system every pocket becomes more pronounced, the river easier to read, every hole ours for the taking.

It’s often a test of will. Just when fingers are beginning to numb and feet stiffening, that’s when the fly quietly drifts over the edge of a riffle, skirts the abyss of slow water, and suddenly stops. All at once the dull, muted rhythms of winter are interrupted by something spectacular. Fireworks burst at the surface of the pool as scales merge into a mosaic of black dots and a swirl of pink. Cold hands and frozen feet are instantly forgotten amidst the sudden sweet panic of playing a large fish.

It’s at moments like this that each one of your senses, every aspect of your being, is tied for an instant to the river. And it’s this that keeps us coming back, when the river is too low to float and the launch sites piled high with snow, skiing to our favorite destinations, warmed by our memories as well as the hopes and spirit of the river and the fish yet to be caught.

Winter fishing basics

The best thing anyone can bring winter fishing is patience and a good attitude. By late fall and early winter, many resident rainbow trout have headed to the nearby lakes for winter, and those that remain tend to be slightly less active. Often a fly needs to be placed right in front of their noses in order to entice a strike.

The next most important ingredients for a good time are warm clothes, and plenty of them. Cold-weather survival experts agree that dressing in layers is essential, starting with polypropylene underwear, followed by polar fleece, a warm coat and a wind shell. For waders, many winter fishermen have turned to the heavy neoprene variety favored by duck hunters. My Cabela’s neoprene 1,600 boot-foot waders are probably the warmest piece of equipment I own. The downside is they are heavy, and can be like wearing a pair of leg weights if you are walking a long way. It’s also easy to work up a sweat, which in cold-weather conditions can be deadly.

You don’t need a large selection of flies this time of year. A few standbys will do. Start with “old” flesh flies, in brown, white and cream — flies that resemble the remains of last year’s salmon carcasses. Also carry a variety of egg patterns, egg-sucking leeches and perhaps a few muddler minnows and sculpins.

Most of all you just need the desire to get out there, wet a line and enjoy this unique time year.

Dave Atcheson teaches a fly-fishing class each spring, starting in March, at Kenai Peninsula College’s Kenai River Campus, and is the author of the guidebook “Fishing Alaska’s Kenai Peninsula.”

Cool advice — Dropping temperatures don’t have to mean dropping activities

By Jenny Neyman
Redoubt Reporter

Baby, it’s cold outside. But that’s no reason to stay inside.

Thermometers on the central Kenai Peninsula have registered single and negative digits since last week. But just because the temperature drops off, doesn’t mean outside activity has to.

“We live in Alaska, you know? If you’re gonna live up here, you gotta stay outside. Otherwise, you might as well move out,” said Justin Moore, of Soldotna.

Moore puts studded tires on his bike and rides in the winter. He used to be an avid snowboarder and lately he’s predominantly a cross-country skier. He did the Gatineau Loppet ski marathon in Canada last year, and is training for the 50-kilometer classic ski Jizerská padesátka marathon in the Czech Republic and the 60-K freestyle Dolomitenlauf ski marathon in Austria in January.

He said he tries to get outside and do something every day, no matter what the weather on the peninsula brings.

“It’s better than Fairbanks. I talked to guys up there and they’re skiing in 40 below zero. It’s been 20 below every day, so we have it easy down here,” he said.

The key is to carry plenty of water to combat dehydration and dress in layers for extra warmth to match the temperature — but not too many layers. Overheating leads to sweating, which makes clothes damp and even colder.

“I’m usually overdressed, which is not good,” he said. “I always worry about falling on the outside loop or a moose catching you and you’re stuck, so I end up wearing too many layers and paying the price, I think.”

Moore said the coldest conditions he’s been out in is biking at minus 35 degrees, which was more like minus 50 with the wind chill.

“I survived, barely. It was a difficult ride. No gears would change,” he said.

On Sunday, Moore was freestyle skiing around Tsalteshi Trails behind Skyview High School in comparably balmy 4-degree weather. Skyview cross-country ski coach Kent Peterson and Skyview skiing alum Tommy Honer, now a freshman at University of Alaska Anchorage, were also out circling the trails.

Peterson said the ski team isn’t allowed out at minus 10 or colder, but the weather doesn’t keep him inside when he’s skiing on his own. He’s skied at minus 18 before.

“The nice thing is when it’s cold it’s really pretty out,” Peterson said. “… It’s kind of cool, you’re outside doing something when everyone else is inside hiding.”

The flip side is if he got hurt, there’d be no one around to help. That’s why it’s a good idea to ski with a friend. Two people can also check each other for the telltale white patches of beginning frostbite on faces, where it’s difficult to feel it happening. Dressing in layers was the skiers’ main advice, including wind briefs for guys and different thicknesses of underlayers depending on the weather. As a general rule, synthetic materials are better for active pursuits, since cotton gets soggy with sweat and loses its insulating abilities.

“They say cotton is really bad, but I still wear cotton socks,” Peterson said.
“You just said your feet were cold,” Honer pointed out.

For heads and faces, warm hats, headbands, neck and face gaiters and balaclavas are options, especially if an outdoor enthusiast doesn’t have nature’s insulator.

“I never wear that stuff when I go out and ski when it’s really cold. Facial hair helps,” Peterson said.

Keeping skin covered is important to protect against frostbite, especially in windy conditions. Skiers sometimes smear petroleum jelly on earlobes, cheeks and noses, or cover them with tape. Glasses or goggles keep eyes from getting cold in the wind, and there are products — like the oh-so-appealingly named Cat Crap — that can be smeared on glasses to keep them from fogging up.

“The best way to get warm is just go outside and do your activity,” Honer said.
Once someone gets going in an activity outside, keep going.

“The most important thing is to not stop,” Peterson said. “If you stop, you get cold, or get sweaty and then get cold.”

When someone is attached to a team of dogs, stopping can sometimes be a challenge. For mushers, it’s important to bring warm, trusted gear.

“The first thing you need is appropriate gear,” said Ashley Irmen, with the Peninsula Sled Dog Racing Association. “With any cold-weather situation you need to be well-equipped and have your gear tested and not just go out in 30 below with something you’ve never tried before and go, ‘Hey, this doesn’t work, I’m cold.’”

Irmen, of Sterling, has been mushing for four years now, after an acquaintance got her hooked on it. She’s been out in 30 below to 35 below zero before. She prefers dressing in a wool base layer, since wool insulates even when wet, and a synthetic or down parka. She brings extra gear in case of emergencies, and checks the weather before she leaves.

“Make sure you have what’s appropriate and know how long you’re going to be out and what weather you are going to face and plan for it,” she said.

That advice holds true for any outdoor winter activity. For snowmachining, there’s one important addition:

“If you’re going to go out on a machine, make sure the machine is in good shape,” said Nolan Compton, of Soldotna, with the Caribou Hills Cabin Hoppers. “Make sure everything’s in good condition and just be prepared if you are going to go out in cold temperatures, it’s always good to not go out alone.”

Specially designed snowmachining parkas and gear mitigate wind chill, are durable and breathable with zippers to control body temperature, and they’re padded in case you’re riding rough, Compton said.

Having a properly fitted helmet also is key. Anything below minus 10 can be difficult for snowmachiners because it’s tough to keep helmet visors from fogging up. Compton has been out in minus 30 on a search and rescue team around Eureka and said the lack of visibility and fogging issues make the ride uncomfortable.

But as long as gear holds up and safety precautions are met, cold is no reason to limit activity.

“I’d rather it was cold than warm any day,” Irmen said. “You live in Alaska. You’re cold nine months of the year. You better figure it out if you’re going to do outside stuff, you know?”

Immersed in chilling knowledge — Being prepared could be difference between life and death

By Clark Fair
Redoubt Reporter

Professor Popsicle, dressed warmly in a bright yellow Sierra Designs insulated jacket, black gloves, a black wool hat and trim black snowpants, cross-country skied his way out of the edge of the mixed deciduous timber toward the lake. He maintained a steady pace, his breath puffing visibly around his face, until suddenly his arms flew up and back and he began to rapidly sink out of sight.

The professor had gone through the lake ice and was now flailing in a small open area churning with slush and small blocks of ice. His breathing, which had had a machinelike evenness while skiing, now became gasping in water that was a bone-chilling 34 degrees Fahrenheit. He fought to regulate his breaths while churning in the water in order to keep his head from submerging.

Fortunately for Professor Popsicle — also known as Dr. Gordon Giesbrecht, considered the world’s leading authority on freezing to death and a professor of thermophysiology at the University of Manitoba — this is a carefully controlled scientific test. Rescue personnel are standing by, although Giesbrecht won’t accept any help until the cameras on scene have recorded his struggles and his explanations concerning those struggles.

For Giesbrecht, who helped rewrite the state of Alaska Guidelines for the Treatment of Cold Injuries in 2002, this is a teachable moment. So he stays in the water for nearly 15 minutes, demonstrating and discussing, before allowing himself to be rescued.

Nikiski Fire Department battalion chief, Greg Hyatt, attended the Sitka-based conference in which the state guidelines were revised, and he has tremendous respect for Giesbrecht’s work, particularly because Hyatt believes education is the key to avoiding cold-water disaster.

Giesbrecht, who in his tests of human endurance has become hypothermic more than 30 times, puts his own health in jeopardy in his attempt to teach others how to keep themselves alive. According to Hyatt, such “controlled danger” lends real authority to Giesbrecht’s recommendations.

In Alaska in November, when skiers, snowmachine riders and other winter outdoor enthusiasts are venturing out onto thin ice, Hyatt said this is a good time to begin considering safety.

According to Hyatt, who runs NFD’s dive-rescue and ice-rescue teams, there are four basic notions to consider: how to avoid going into cold water, how to survive if you do go in, how to get out and how to survive once you’re out.

Avoiding going in is crucial. There are common-sense ways to improve your odds: stay off thin ice; avoid open water whenever possible, even on snowmachines that glide over water if proper speed and angle are maintained; and especially avoid stream inlets and outlets, where a submerged person can be carried away under the ice away from the point of entry.

According to Hyatt, it’s best not to snowmachine alone, or to do any recreational activity in winter alone if traveling over ice will be involved. Ice thicknesses can vary widely, he said, depending upon the water’s current, freeze-and-thaw, springs beneath the ice and other factors.

People who do go in need to know the facts. To begin with, cold water robs heat from the human body at least 25 times faster than air does, and a person who goes into cold water experiences an initial cold shock that can kill quickly.

Cold shock can last three to five minutes, but the worst part comes right away. The cold can be so intense that it causes you to gasp, involuntarily drawing in a large breath, which can mean inhaling water if you fully submerge at first. Those who inhale water greatly reduce their chances of survival.

Otherwise, if you can keep your head above water and calm yourself enough to work through the initial hyperventilation, you will find that your breathing begins to normalize and you can think more clearly.

“If you can get your breathing under control, that shock subsides, as long as you keep your wits about you,” Hyatt said.

At that point you can think of self-rescue.

Time is still of the essence. The longer you spend in cold water — when the body shunts its main blood supply to the core for protection — the less able you are to use your arms and legs effectively.
“Dexterity goes away in the first few minutes,” Hyatt said.

Giesbrecht and Hyatt recommend attempting a self-extraction at the point of entry, where the ice is likely to be more stable. In one of his instruction videos for Discovery Canada, Giesbrecht, unable to simply pull himself up onto the ice shelf, places his elbows on the ice and then kicks with his legs as if swimming to propel himself forward. Doing so, he is able to pull himself out, at which point he rolls away from the hole and then crawls, careful to spread his weight across as wide an area as possible.

Without extraction, as Giesbrecht demonstrates later, hypothermia begins to set in, and then most people no longer have the capacity for self-rescue. At this point, he said, it is best to pull as much of yourself out of the water as possible, hoping to freeze to the ice and avoid drowning even in the case of a loss of consciousness.

If you do get out, your main concern — barring immediate rescue — should be restoring warmth to your body. Hyatt said you need to strip off as many of your wet items of clothing as possible, wring them out and then put them back on. You also need to build a fire and, if you believe that rescue is not imminent, you need to erect some sort of shelter.

Ultimately, Hyatt said the best fire and shelter should work in unison. If you can build a shelter that captures and reflects the heat of the fire while keeping you off the cold ground, you can not only survive but also begin to dry out and recapture any loss in your core temperature.

Hyatt also stressed a few important rules for would-be rescuers of cold-water immersion: First, don’t become a victim yourself. Try to maintain personal safety while extracting the victim. Second, once you have the victim out of the water, keep him or her horizontal, if possible, and allow him or her to warm up slowly. Hyatt suggested body-to-body contact as one of the safest ways to restore normal body functions.

Thin ice equals hot water if not prepared

Preparation can be the key to survival if you fall into cold water, especially in wintertime. If you are planning to travel over potential danger spots, here are some things to take with you that could mean the difference between life and death:

• If possible, travel with a GPS (or at least a compass). A GPS can allow you to establish waypoints as you travel, thereby giving you markers to find your way out, even in the densest fog. It may be expensive, but buying a satellite messenger or leasing a satellite phone might save your life in case of emergency. Satellite messengers are about the size of a cigarette pack and weigh less than half a pound, and they are capable of sending a 911 alert with your precise GPS location. Avoid relying on cell phones, which usually cannot receive service in wilderness areas and can be notorious for drained batteries, especially in cold weather. A VHF radio, on the other hand, can be much more reliable and get you in touch with rescue personnel.
• Dress for success. For just a little more money than conventional snowmobiling gear, you can buy a buoyant suit that can save your life. Those who wish to avoid bulky gear while skiing or snowshoeing can purchase buoyant jackets or even thin, inflatable personal flotation devices.
• Avoid cotton or any clothing that readily absorbs water. In one of Giesbrecht’s videos, he and another snowmachiner sink in open water on an otherwise frozen lake; Giesbrecht’s partner is wearing water-shedding buoyant gear, while Giesbrecht is wearing a basic snowsuit. Soon, the professor is trying to stay afloat with 60 to 80 additional pounds of water clinging to him, while his friend is weighted down less than 30 pounds.
• Have extra gear — socks, hat, gloves or mittens — in a waterproof bag in your daypack or fanny pack.
• Improve your chances for self-extraction. Many companies now sell ice claws, sometimes known as ice picks or even bear claws. These hand-held picks are typically worn around the neck in sheaths and can easily be pulled out and driven into the ice in the way an ice climber would use ice axes.
• Invest in or build an emergency fire-starter kit. Possibilities for kindling the blaze include waterproof and/or storm-proof matches, a magnesium striking tool, or a flint-and-steel combination. As for tinder, consider such options as Vaseline-soaked cotton balls, or even balls of sawdust or dryer lint, kept ready in a film canister or a similar watertight container.
• Other essentials in an emergency include a signal mirror or flares, an LED headlamp, hand warmers, extra food and drink, medical supplies, space blankets for insulation, a 50-foot nylon cord for rescue or to help build shelter, and a knife and collapsible wood saw.

Winter’s on the way — Forecasters predict return to normal conditions

By Ben Histand
For the Redoubt Reporter

As temperatures drop, the approach of winter is becoming harder to ignore. In Cooper Landing, snow is descending to ever-lower altitudes, and as quickly as the mountains are turning white, the lowlands are losing the bright colors whose arrival marked the end of summer. Several night frosts have prompted more than a few residents to harvest potatoes from the garden, and fall pumpkins have made their debut at local grocery stores. Winter may not have arrived yet, but it is certainly on its way.

What kind of winter is in store for the Kenai Peninsula? After an anomalous summer that by National Weather Service statistics ranked as one of the coldest on record, residents may be wondering if the out-of-the-ordinary weather will continue. While speculations vary, on the whole, climatological data suggests that abnormal weather will not continue.

Dan Peterson, observation program leader with the National Weather Service’s Anchorage Weather Forecast Office, said that based on 30 years of climate records, his office estimates temperatures for the next three months will be near normal. According to the Western Regional Climate Center’s Web site, that would indicate fall temperatures averaging 34.6 degrees Fahrenheit in Kenai, and winter temperatures averaging 14.9 degrees.
With summer temperatures often struggling to top 60 degrees, however, a typical fall and winter may feel uncomfortably cold to some. Morgan Renney, of Soldotna, isn’t worried.

“I’m hoping for lots of snow,” he said. He said he’s looking forward to snowboarding Redoubt Hill in Soldotna and Mount Alyeska in Girdwood. Normal cumulative snowfall for Southcentral Alaska is 69.5 inches, and the first measurable snowfall typically comes in October. The record for latest measurable snowfall is Nov. 11, according to the National Weather Service Web site.

One possible factor influencing the cold summer temperatures was the La Niña effect, which refers to cooler-than-normal ocean temperatures in the eastern South Pacific that influence weather patterns as far away as Alaska. La Niña dissipated as summer passed, according to the NOAA, but ocean temperatures may still be influencing Alaska’s climate in other ways.

Martha Shulski, a climatologist with the Alaska Climate Research Center in Fairbanks, said temperatures in Alaska are significantly affected by a phenomenon known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which, like La Niña, involves trends in ocean temperatures, but takes place over a much longer period of time. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation refers to cycling phases of warmer and cooler surface temperatures in the North Pacific, and these lead to warmer and cooler air temperatures in Alaska.

Historically, the PDO appears to shift every 20 to 30 years. The most recent observed shift, from a colder phase to a warmer one, was in 1976. Shulski said there is speculation, but no consensus, that the PDO is now shifting or has already shifted back to a colder phase. If it does shift, climatologists would expect mean temperatures in Alaska to drop on the order of a degree or two.

Dwain Gibson, a resident of the Kenai Peninsula since 1957, said he thinks accurate forecasts are difficult to come by.

“We’ve had a wet summer,” he said.

From what he can remember, wet summers are often followed by a severe winter. But he was reluctant to make a prediction about this year.

“You’ve got to just take it a day at a time,” he said.